​Diffusion of innovative semiconductor market with GA and BASS model

Diffusion of innovative semiconductor market with GA and BASS model

Xiao Jiongen¹ He Chengchao¹ Hao Rui^2,*

(1.Business School, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou,Guangdong,510320；

2.Northern Laboratory (Shenyang) Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Branch, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510320）

Abstract: Innovative chip products have a long production cycle and high production costs.Accurate prediction of relevant markets can avoid losses caused by excessive inventory.This paper improves the BASS model with parameter estimation based on genetic algorithm to analyze the market diffusion of innovative chips.Compared to the BASS model with least squares parameter estimation considering seasonal factors,the novel model proposed in this paper has a more accurate prediction.Furthermore,the adap tability of this model in the market of high-tech product with chips as important components is demonstrated by example data.Research shows that the chip market mainly promotes consumer purchases through internal innovation in the early stage,and in the process of diffusion,the gradual transition is mainly based on word-of-mouth communication of users.Chip production and application companies can use this model to adjust their business strategies based on the prediction results at different stages to maximize corporate profits.

Key words: semiconductor industry; Demand forecasting; BASS model; Genetic algorithm(ga)

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